Football may be a sport full of uncertainty, but the job of coaching staff is to try and tip the probabilities in their favour. In recent years, the explosion of data has led to a flood of key performance indicators (KPIs), raising the question: which ones are truly valuable for predicting a match? A recent study addressed this question by analysing 918 Bundesliga matches to compare xG (probability of scoring from shots) and EPV (probability of scoring from any action or possession) before the match (using the last 3 matches plus context) and after the match (using only the match performance). The result? EPV predicts the future better than xG because it measures the offensive value of all possessions, not just shots. It is therefore the ideal tool for anticipating trends, form, and offensive potential. Conversely, xG is the most reliable post-match performance indicator with an accuracy of 65.6%. This makes sense: since goals come from shots, xG reflects the actual danger created. “In a world saturated with KPIs, this study provides real clarity: EPV is the tool for projecting what could happen, and xG for evaluating what actually happened. The two combined form a more objective, reliable, and relevant analysis,” concludes Basil More-Chevalier, Head of Performance and Assistant Coach at Hamburger SV.
Which KPIs can be used to predict the outcome of a match? Answer from Basil More-Chevalier, performance manager and assistant coach at Hamburg SV (centre) / ©DR